Consequences of changing fire and climate for wildlife habitat

Biodiversity conservation during the Anthropocene relies on enduring habitat in protected areas

In fire-prone ecosystems, direct climate impacts will interact with fire-catalyzed shifts in vegetation, which may undermine protected-area efficacy. We explored these dynamics for three emblematic forest species (Black-backed Woodpecker, Picoides arcticus; North American marten, Martes spp.; red squirrel, Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (Wyoming, USA) and asked: (1) How does the amount and distribution of potentially suitable habitat for these species change during the 21st century based on the independent and joint effects of climate and vegetation? (2) How do spatial patterns of suitable habitat change during the 21st century?

We developed separate distribution models for three species based on climate and forest attributes.

We projected these models under four climate scenarios (a 2x2 design with moderate and high temperature and precipitation change). A spatially explicit forest landscape model was used to project fire and forest dynamics, and climate suitability was estimated with Maxent.

Climatically suitable habitat for the Black-backed Woodpecker increased in all scenarios, and suitable forest structure expanded by a factor of 30 in dry scenarios with more fire. Climatically suitable habitat for martens declined with warming and drying; the area of suitable vegetation fell >80% with fire-driven losses of mature forest. Red squirrel habitat was maintained in all scenarios, but was sensitive to aridity, and patches were redistributed and compacted. While responses varied among taxa, suitable habitat for all three species based on climate or vegetation alone frequently did not overlap on the landscape, and habitat patches became smaller, simpler in shape and farther apart.

Projections based only on climate may misrepresent future distributions, especially where disturbances accelerate vegetation change.

Our results identify important consequences of fire-regime change for wildlife across North American forests dominated by obligate-seeder or fire-sensitive conifers.

This manuscript is in review. Please contact me for a preprint.